In early September, we discussed how the yield curve briefly turned negative. The yield curve we referenced was the difference between the U.S. 10-year yield and the U.S. 2-year yield. Why was this such a big deal? Because on the last 7 occasions, it led to a recession (however the recessions were 6-9 months later). At the time, we … Read more Another Look At The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
The Canadian loonie reached its three-month high of 1.3082 per dollar when their election closed yesterday. Justin Trudeau started his second term as the Canadian Prime Minister with the minority Liberal government. Loonie is still the best performing major currency this year. The Canadian dollar rose by about 3.7% in 10 months. CAD/USD raised 0.05% at 0.7645 on … Read more Canada’s Prime Minister Climbs Currencies
Currency Markets The Pound With the GBP shrouded by a veil of uncertainty, Volumes have been very light in Asia Maybe a case of selling the facts after the latest achievements; snap election uncertainty in the mix; the good news is in the price, hence profit-taking amid the very slim possibility that a rogue EU politician vetoes … Read more G-10 Currencies: USD/JPY Falling As Risk Sentiment Sours
Once again the major fx markets are relatively subdued today as we wait and see if there is going to be a Brexit vote by Parliament in the UK today. If the vote passes today, the most likely overcome for the pound will be positive, while a failure to pass will most likely be negative. … Read more FX: Sterling's Near-Term Technicals
The Canadian loonie lifted when the country’s election results tilted to Justin Trudeau’s favor. The two-time Prime Minister won with a minority government on his second term. Elections normally mean uncertainty over each party’s proposed economic policies, but this year was different in Canada. Similarities between the Conservative and Liberal party helped decrease investors’ uncertainty. Justin Trudeau … Read more Elections Lift Canadian Loonie
Daily USD/CAD It’s (still) the economy, stupid. In Monday night’s federal election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau fought off a stout challenge from Conservative candidate Andrew Scheer to win his second term, with the generally strong Canadian economy playing a heavy role in supporting the incumbent. As we noted in last week’s election preview report, the economy performed … Read more Trudeau Survives, USD/CAD Bears Still in Control
The pound is sliding towards $1.29 as investors look to the Parliamentary debate and vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit bill. Bojo’s Brexit deal will be put before the House of Commons for a vote. This is not the meaningful vote that John Bercow denied the Prime Minister yesterday, it is a vote on the Withdrawal Bill Act, … Read more Pound Wobbles Ahead Of Brexit Vote
Once again it’s time to check out the four primary currencies on the daily timeframes for the Japanese yen, the US dollar, the single currency and the British pound. And if we begin with the yen, the bearish sentiment signaled last week has continued, driving the index through key support in the 8920 region which failed to hold … Read more Where Next For Leading Currencies?